{"id":851,"date":"2018-03-30T20:10:58","date_gmt":"2018-03-31T00:10:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gopplaybook.com\/?p=851"},"modified":"2018-03-31T20:14:02","modified_gmt":"2018-04-01T00:14:02","slug":"how-will-the-midterm-elections-play-out-watch-pennsylvania","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gopplaybook.com\/?p=851","title":{"rendered":"How Will the Midterm Elections Play Out? Watch Pennsylvania"},"content":{"rendered":"
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By\u00a0TRIP GABRIEL<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>

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Conor Lamb greeted St. Patrick\u2019s Day celebrants in downtown Pittsburgh. Mr. Lamb, a Democrat, won his upset victory in the 18th Congressional District, partly by reawakening dormant Democratic DNA in white working-class voters who had supported Donald Trump.<\/span>Credit<\/span>Jessie Wardarski\/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, via Associated Press<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

One thing has become clear about the midterm elections, which will determine the political script for the rest of President Trump\u2019s term: Pennsylvania is where much of the action will be.<\/p>\n

Democrats eager to take control of the House of Representatives see rich opportunities in Pennsylvania to pry seats from Republican hands. Swarms of candidates have filed to run in the state\u2019s primary on May 15. And polling data published on Thursday showed strong advantages for the Democrats, in a swing state where Republicans have had the upper hand in recent years.<\/p>\n

Two developments are converging to give Pennsylvania its outsize role:\u00a0New congressional districts<\/a>\u00a0drawn by the State Supreme Court make the map more of an equal playing field; and a\u00a0special-election upset<\/a>\u00a0by a Democrat in one of the reddest parts of the state signaled an incipient blue wave.<\/p>\n

Democrats appear to be in position to flip at least three, and perhaps as many as six, of Pennsylvania\u2019s 18 House seats, according to strategists from both parties. That could represent a quarter of the\u00a024-seat gain they need nationwide<\/a>\u00a0to take control of the House.<\/p>\n

\u201cPennsylvania will be the epicenter of the political world this fall,\u201d said Charlie Gerow, a Republican strategist in the state. With so many seats in play, he predicted that \u201cgobs of money\u201d would flow in.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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The prospect has caused a geyser of candidates: As of Tuesday, 58 Democrats and 35 Republicans were seeking House seats, according to the\u00a0Department of State<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Behind the altered political terrain are two restive groups of voters. College-educated suburbanites outside Philadelphia are angry at Mr. Trump and in a mood to send him a message. And blue-collar voters in western Pennsylvania are suddenly up for grabs, after they turned out strongly in the special election this month to elect a moderate young Democrat, Conor Lamb, over a Republican who ran as a wingman to the president.<\/p>\n

In the Philadelphia suburbs, three Republican incumbents who have seen the writing on the wall are retiring, and a fourth is stepping down after a sexual harassment scandal. The latest to retire is Representative Ryan Costello, who announced his decision over the weekend, citing the difficulty of being heard over the cacophony from the White House.<\/p>\n

The shifts outside Philadelphia mirror changes in suburbs around the country, as Mr. Trump\u2019s policies and behavior have pushed away college-educated voters. The Pew Research Center\u00a0r<\/a>eported this week<\/a>\u00a0that more voters with a four-year college degree now identify as Democrats or lean Democratic \u2014 54 percent \u2014 than at any time since 1994.<\/p>\n

Philadelphia\u2019s suburbs were once so reliably Republican that Ronald Reagan\u2019s cabinet included\u00a0three residents of Montgomery County<\/a>\u00a0alone. But the region\u2019s allegiance began to shift as well-educated and culturally liberal voters came to predominate in the suburbs in the 1990s.<\/p>\n

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2018 Election Calendar and Results<\/h2>\n

A full list of elections for the House and Senate, including which races matter most for congressional control.<\/p>\n<\/figcaption>

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The tide was held back in the last decade by gerrymandered congressional districts drawn by Republicans to protect their candidates. But that map was\u00a0thrown out by the state court<\/a>\u00a0in January, and Republicans lost appeals to have the United States Supreme Court intervene.\u00a0The state’s new districts<\/a>hew more compactly to county and town boundaries.<\/p>\n

Two nonpartisan handicappers of House races, the\u00a0Cook Political Report<\/a>and\u00a0Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball<\/a>, now rate four Republican-held seats in the Philadelphia suburbs as either \u201csolidly\u201d Democratic, \u201clikely\u201d to fall into the party\u2019s hands, or \u201cleaning\u201d that way. The chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, Val DiGregorio, declined to comment.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a big wave coming our way,\u201d said Representative Charlie Dent, a Republican from the Lehigh Valley north of Philadelphia, who is not running for re-election. \u201cI\u2019d get off the beach.\u201d<\/p>\n