{"id":804,"date":"2018-03-26T21:22:41","date_gmt":"2018-03-27T01:22:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gopplaybook.com\/?p=804"},"modified":"2018-03-26T21:22:41","modified_gmt":"2018-03-27T01:22:41","slug":"to-reclaim-the-house-democrats-need-to-flip-24-g-o-p-seats-25-are-in-clinton-territory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gopplaybook.com\/?p=804","title":{"rendered":"To Reclaim the House, Democrats Need to Flip 24 G.O.P. Seats. 25 Are in Clinton Territory."},"content":{"rendered":"
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By\u00a0JASMINE C. LEE<\/span><\/a>\u00a0

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Democrats hope to ride a wave of liberal enthusiasm and anti-Trump sentiment to a House majority in the midterm elections in November. All 435 House seats are up for grabs, but only about\u00a048 seats are considered competitive<\/strong>\u00a0(rated tossup or leaning toward one party), based on an average of estimates from three organizations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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*Each of Pennsylvania\u2019s districts, which were\u00a0<\/span>redrawn last month<\/a>, is represented by the new district for that area and the new district\u2019s race rating.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Note: There are currently five vacancies in the House whose seats are placed based on their past occupants: Arizona\u2019s Eighth, Ohio\u2019s 12th and Pennsylvania\u2019s 14th (the old 18th district) are shown as Republican seats, while Michigan\u2019s 13th and New York\u2019s 25th are shown as Democratic seats.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Democrats, who have been sidelined as the House minority party since 2010, need to flip\u00a024 Republican seats<\/strong>\u00a0while keeping the 194 seats they currently hold.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Two indicators that are considered good predictors of the midterm vote have given Democrats hope. First, the party is\u00a0performing better than Republicans<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0generic ballot polls<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 surveys in which people are asked which party they would support in a congressional election. Second, President Trump\u2019s approval rating is\u00a0relatively low<\/a>. But congressional races are inherently local elections, and the individual candidates on the ballot will matter in November.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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The math favors the Democrats:\u00a041 of these competitive seats are held by Republicans<\/strong>, while only\u00a07 are held by Democrats<\/strong>. Most of these races are in districts where Hillary Clinton and Mr. Trump barely outperformed the other in the 2016 presidential race, and many of the incumbents won with smaller margins as well.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Even some Republicans seats in Trump country are in jeopardy. On March 13, Conor Lamb, a Democrat and former Marine,\u00a0won a razor-thin upset<\/a>\u00a0in a special House election in southwestern Pennsylvania, in a district that Mr. Trump won by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Democrats will surely look first to flip the\u00a025 districts<\/a>\u00a0where Mrs. Clinton outperformed Mr. Trump. Six are leaning toward Democrats, including Martha McSally\u2019s open seat in Arizona\u2019s Second District. Two, however, are likely to remain Republican, including New York\u2019s 24th District, where John Katko won 60 percent of the vote in 2016 and is\u00a0unlikely to face a strong Democratic challenger<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Fund-raising plays a major part in elections, and several Republican incumbents are being outraised by Democratic challengers. Several of these districts are still considered safely Republican, but some, like New York\u2019s 19th \u2014 where Antonio Delgado had raised $287,000 more in 2017 than the incumbent, John Faso \u2014 are viewed as competitive because of the Democrat\u2019s fund-raising advantage.<\/p>\n

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Republicans can still go on the offensive and will look first to flip seats in districts that voted most strongly for Mr. Trump. Two of the 12 Democratic districts, both of which Mr. Trump won easily, are rated as tossups.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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But half of the seats in these districts are solidly or likely Democratic, and Trump voters might not turn out for Republicans without the president on the ballot.<\/p>\n

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More than 30 Republicans have announced that they will not be running for re-election in their district, a\u00a0far greater number than in previous years<\/a>. But most of those races are still rated solidly or likely Republican, so they are unlikely to flip to a Democrat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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However, six of the Republican seats are currently leaning toward the Democrats, including\u00a0Darrell Issa\u2019s southern California seat<\/a>, which he narrowly won in 2016, and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen\u2019s Miami-area seat where Mrs. Clinton carried the vote by more than 19 percentage points.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Democrats will also have to defend 16 open seats. Representatives in the five most competitive races won by fewer than five percentage points in 2016; three of them earned less than 50 percent of the total vote.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Democrats got some unexpected help from
a new congressional map in Pennsylvania.<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
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Last month, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court\u00a0released new district boundaries<\/a>\u00a0after ruling the state\u2019s\u00a0gerrymandered map<\/a>\u00a0unconstitutional. Over all, the new map is great news for Democrats because it\u00a0pushed multiple districts to the left<\/a>, inching the party closer to the 24 seats needed to retake the House.<\/p>\n

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There have been swings of 24 seats or more in half of the midterm elections since 1994. The last time Democrats took the House with that kind of swing was the 2006 midterm election, when they picked up 32 seats. In 2010, as the\u00a0<\/span>Tea Party movement<\/a>\u00a0against President Obama\u2019s policies shifted the political landscape, Republicans took control of the House by flipping 64 seats. They have held the chamber ever since.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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*Each of Pennsylvania\u2019s districts, which were redrawn last month, is represented by the new district for that area and the new district\u2019s race rating.<\/span><\/p>\n